Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
