Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
